Ashton JeantyorJustin Jefferson?
Week 7 start/sit decision, running back or wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Ashton Jeanty
Ashton Jeanty outscores Justin Jefferson in 51% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Justin Jefferson comes out ahead in the other 49%. Lean Ashton Jeanty, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Ashton Jeanty projects 0.2 half-PPR points ahead in Week 7. Justin Jefferson has the better matchup against the Indianapolis Colts (8% more than average to WRs); Ashton Jeanty faces the Los Angeles Rams (10% fewer than average to RBs). Ashton Jeanty still wins more often despite that. Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, Justin Jefferson is the pick at 54%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 4.3
- Median
- 11.2
- Ceiling
- 23.7
- Big game (20+):
- 17%
- Dud (under 6):
- 19%
- Floor
- 4.5
- Median
- 11.1
- Ceiling
- 21.5
- Big game (20+):
- 14%
- Dud (under 6):
- 18%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Ashton JeantyRB, LV, Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 p.m. ET | Justin JeffersonWR, MIN, Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 12.6 | 12.4 |
| PPR projection | 14.3 | 15.1 |
| Standard projection | 10.8 | 9.7 |
| Rank this week | RB11 | WR17 |
| Matchup | vs LAR | vs IND |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 14.6 | 13.6 |
| Last season per game | 12.8 | 9.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 58% | 89% |
| Trade value | 29 | 18 |