Bo NixorLamar Jackson?
Week 4 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Lean Lamar Jackson
Lamar Jackson outscores Bo Nix in 54% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Bo Nix comes out ahead in the other 46%. Lean Lamar Jackson, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Lamar Jackson projects 1.4 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. The matchups don't separate them: Lamar Jackson faces the Tennessee Titans (2% more than average to QBs), Bo Nix faces the San Francisco 49ers (1% fewer than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 7.9
- Median
- 15.6
- Ceiling
- 27.4
- Big game (25+):
- 14%
- Dud (under 12):
- 30%
- Floor
- 8.4
- Median
- 16.6
- Ceiling
- 28.9
- Big game (25+):
- 18%
- Dud (under 12):
- 25%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Bo NixQB, DEN, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET | Lamar JacksonQB, BAL, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 16.8 | 18.2 |
| PPR projection | 16.8 | 18.2 |
| Standard projection | 16.8 | 18.2 |
| Rank this week | QB15 | QB11 |
| Matchup | at SF | vs TEN |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 14.5 | 20.1 |
| Last season per game | 17.9 | 16.5 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | — | 4 |