Breece HallorJavonte Williams?
Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Javonte Williams
Javonte Williams outscores Breece Hall in 56% of simulations.
Breece Hall still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so Javonte Williams is the better bet, not a sure thing. Javonte Williams projects 0.9 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Breece Hall has the better matchup against the Chicago Bears (2% more than average to RBs); Javonte Williams faces the Houston Texans (19% fewer than average to RBs). Javonte Williams still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 4.4
- Median
- 10.6
- Ceiling
- 21.3
- Big game (20+):
- 12%
- Dud (under 6):
- 19%
- Floor
- 6.1
- Median
- 12.0
- Ceiling
- 21.7
- Big game (20+):
- 13%
- Dud (under 6):
- 9%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
Share this
| Stat | Breece HallRB, NYJ, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Javonte WilliamsRB, DAL, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 12.0 | 12.9 |
| PPR projection | 13.4 | 14.0 |
| Standard projection | 10.6 | 11.7 |
| Rank this week | RB15 | RB12 |
| Matchup | at CHI | at HOU |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 12.5 | 15.2 |
| Last season per game | 11.9 | 14.1 |
| Snap share, last game | 48% | 76% |
| Trade value | 18 | 35 |