Breece HallorJavonte Williams?

Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.

Our call

Start Javonte Williams

Javonte Williams outscores Breece Hall in 56% of simulations.

Breece Hall still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so Javonte Williams is the better bet, not a sure thing. Javonte Williams projects 0.9 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Breece Hall has the better matchup against the Chicago Bears (2% more than average to RBs); Javonte Williams faces the Houston Texans (19% fewer than average to RBs). Javonte Williams still wins more often despite that.

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

Breece Hall
Floor
4.4
Median
10.6
Ceiling
21.3
Big game (20+):
12%
Dud (under 6):
19%
Javonte Williams
Floor
6.1
Median
12.0
Ceiling
21.7
Big game (20+):
13%
Dud (under 6):
9%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatBreece HallRB, NYJ, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ETJavonte WilliamsRB, DAL, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET
Half-PPR projection12.012.9
PPR projection13.414.0
Standard projection10.611.7
Rank this weekRB15RB12
Matchupat CHIat HOU
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game12.515.2
Last season per game11.914.1
Snap share, last game48%76%
Trade value1835