CeeDee LamborKyren Williams?

Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver or running back.

Our call

Lean CeeDee Lamb

CeeDee Lamb outscores Kyren Williams in 51% of simulations.

That's close to a coin flip: Kyren Williams comes out ahead in the other 49%. Lean CeeDee Lamb, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. CeeDee Lamb projects 0.3 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. The matchups don't separate them: CeeDee Lamb faces the Houston Texans (4% fewer than average to WRs), Kyren Williams faces the Philadelphia Eagles (3% more than average to RBs). Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, CeeDee Lamb wins 56%; in Standard leagues, Kyren Williams is the pick at 58%.

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

CeeDee Lamb
Floor
7.2
Median
14.6
Ceiling
26.1
Big game (20+):
25%
Dud (under 6):
6%
Kyren Williams
Floor
7.9
Median
14.3
Ceiling
23.7
Big game (20+):
21%
Dud (under 6):
4%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatCeeDee LambWR, DAL, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ETKyren WilliamsRB, LAR, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET
Half-PPR projection15.815.5
PPR projection18.916.9
Standard projection12.814.0
Rank this weekWR4RB7
Matchupat HOUat PHI
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game20.315.8
Last season per game12.614.4
Snap share, last game82%71%
Trade value5040