CeeDee LamborKyren Williams?
Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver or running back.
Our call
Lean CeeDee Lamb
CeeDee Lamb outscores Kyren Williams in 51% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Kyren Williams comes out ahead in the other 49%. Lean CeeDee Lamb, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. CeeDee Lamb projects 0.3 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. The matchups don't separate them: CeeDee Lamb faces the Houston Texans (4% fewer than average to WRs), Kyren Williams faces the Philadelphia Eagles (3% more than average to RBs). Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, CeeDee Lamb wins 56%; in Standard leagues, Kyren Williams is the pick at 58%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 7.2
- Median
- 14.6
- Ceiling
- 26.1
- Big game (20+):
- 25%
- Dud (under 6):
- 6%
- Floor
- 7.9
- Median
- 14.3
- Ceiling
- 23.7
- Big game (20+):
- 21%
- Dud (under 6):
- 4%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | CeeDee LambWR, DAL, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Kyren WilliamsRB, LAR, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 15.8 | 15.5 |
| PPR projection | 18.9 | 16.9 |
| Standard projection | 12.8 | 14.0 |
| Rank this week | WR4 | RB7 |
| Matchup | at HOU | at PHI |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 20.3 | 15.8 |
| Last season per game | 12.6 | 14.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 82% | 71% |
| Trade value | 50 | 40 |