Chase BrownorTrey McBride?
Week 5 start/sit decision, running back or tight end.
Our call
Lean Trey McBride
Trey McBride outscores Chase Brown in 55% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Chase Brown comes out ahead in the other 45%. Lean Trey McBride, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Trey McBride projects 1.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. Trey McBride has the better matchup against the Detroit Lions (42% more than average to TEs); Chase Brown faces the Miami Dolphins (18% more than average to RBs). Scoring matters here: in Standard leagues, Chase Brown is the pick at 53%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 6.0
- Median
- 13.2
- Ceiling
- 24.5
- Big game (20+):
- 20%
- Dud (under 6):
- 10%
- Floor
- 6.5
- Median
- 14.4
- Ceiling
- 26.8
- Big game (15+):
- 47%
- Dud (under 5):
- 5%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Chase BrownRB, CIN, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | Trey McBrideTE, ARI, Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 14.7 | 15.8 |
| PPR projection | 17.3 | 20.3 |
| Standard projection | 12.1 | 11.4 |
| Rank this week | RB8 | TE1 |
| Matchup | at MIA | vs DET |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 11.9 | 13.2 |
| Last season per game | 14.6 | 14.9 |
| Snap share, last game | 79% | 97% |
| Trade value | 30 | 46 |