Dalton KincaidorTrey McBride?
Week 10 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Start Trey McBride
Trey McBride outscores Dalton Kincaid in 69% of simulations.
Dalton Kincaid still comes out ahead in the other 31%, so Trey McBride is the better bet, not a sure thing. Trey McBride projects 4.0 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. Dalton Kincaid has the better matchup against the New York Jets (11% more than average to TEs); Trey McBride faces the Los Angeles Rams (15% fewer than average to TEs). Trey McBride still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.5
- Median
- 7.8
- Ceiling
- 17.8
- Big game (15+):
- 16%
- Dud (under 5):
- 30%
- Floor
- 5.7
- Median
- 11.9
- Ceiling
- 21.6
- Big game (15+):
- 32%
- Dud (under 5):
- 7%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Dalton KincaidTE, BUF, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET | Trey McBrideTE, ARI, Sun, Nov 15, 4:05 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 9.0 | 13.0 |
| PPR projection | 10.9 | 16.5 |
| Standard projection | 7.1 | 9.4 |
| Rank this week | TE6 | TE2 |
| Matchup | at NYJ | vs LAR |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 8.7 | 14.0 |
| Last season per game | 8.9 | 14.9 |
| Snap share, last game | 50% | 83% |
| Trade value | — | 49 |