Derrick HenryorNico Collins?
Week 5 start/sit decision, running back or wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Derrick Henry
Derrick Henry outscores Nico Collins in 50% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Nico Collins comes out ahead in the other 50%. Lean Derrick Henry, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Derrick Henry projects 0.2 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. Nico Collins has the better matchup against the Tennessee Titans (13% more than average to WRs); Derrick Henry faces the Atlanta Falcons (12% fewer than average to RBs). Derrick Henry still wins more often despite that. Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, Nico Collins is the pick at 56%; in Standard leagues, Derrick Henry wins 56%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 6.3
- Median
- 14.9
- Ceiling
- 29.9
- Big game (20+):
- 31%
- Dud (under 6):
- 9%
- Floor
- 7.5
- Median
- 15.2
- Ceiling
- 27.6
- Big game (20+):
- 29%
- Dud (under 6):
- 5%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Derrick HenryRB, BAL, Sun, Oct 11, 8:20 p.m. ET | Nico CollinsWR, HOU, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 16.8 | 16.6 |
| PPR projection | 17.4 | 19.5 |
| Standard projection | 16.2 | 13.8 |
| Rank this week | RB5 | WR5 |
| Matchup | at ATL | at TEN |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 21.8 | 22.5 |
| Last season per game | 16.0 | 12.7 |
| Snap share, last game | 62% | 69% |
| Trade value | 69 | 55 |