George KittleorZay Flowers?
Week 4 start/sit decision, tight end or wide receiver.
Our call
Lean George Kittle
George Kittle outscores Zay Flowers in 51% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Zay Flowers comes out ahead in the other 49%. Lean George Kittle, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. George Kittle projects 0.4 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Zay Flowers has the better matchup against the Tennessee Titans (12% more than average to WRs); George Kittle faces the Denver Broncos (3% more than average to TEs). George Kittle still wins more often despite that. Zay Flowers is listed as questionable.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 4.3
- Median
- 11.8
- Ceiling
- 25.3
- Big game (15+):
- 35%
- Dud (under 5):
- 14%
- Floor
- 1.1
- Median
- 11.9
- Ceiling
- 25.1
- Big game (20+):
- 20%
- Dud (under 6):
- 21%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | George KittleTE, SF, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET | Zay FlowersWR, BAL, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 13.4 | 13.0 |
| PPR projection | 15.8 | 15.4 |
| Standard projection | 10.9 | 10.5 |
| Rank this week | TE2 | WR12 |
| Matchup | vs DEN | vs TEN |
| Injury | None | Questionable |
| 2026 points per game | 13.8 | 18.2 |
| Last season per game | 12.1 | 11.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 85% | 33% |
| Trade value | 29 | 31 |