Javonte WilliamsorRashee Rice?

Week 4 start/sit decision, running back or wide receiver.

Our call

Lean Javonte Williams

Javonte Williams outscores Rashee Rice in 50% of simulations.

That's close to a coin flip: Rashee Rice comes out ahead in the other 50%. Lean Javonte Williams, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Rashee Rice projects 0.2 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Rashee Rice has the better matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders (2% fewer than average to WRs); Javonte Williams faces the Houston Texans (19% fewer than average to RBs). Javonte Williams still wins more often despite that. Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, Rashee Rice is the pick at 56%; in Standard leagues, Javonte Williams wins 57%.

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

Javonte Williams
Floor
6.1
Median
12.0
Ceiling
21.7
Big game (20+):
13%
Dud (under 6):
9%
Rashee Rice
Floor
5.5
Median
12.0
Ceiling
22.1
Big game (20+):
15%
Dud (under 6):
13%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatJavonte WilliamsRB, DAL, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ETRashee RiceWR, KC, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET
Half-PPR projection12.913.1
PPR projection14.015.9
Standard projection11.710.3
Rank this weekRB12WR10
Matchupat HOUat LV
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game15.210.5
Last season per game14.115.5
Snap share, last game76%77%
Trade value3530