Javonte WilliamsorRashee Rice?
Week 4 start/sit decision, running back or wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Javonte Williams
Javonte Williams outscores Rashee Rice in 50% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Rashee Rice comes out ahead in the other 50%. Lean Javonte Williams, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Rashee Rice projects 0.2 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Rashee Rice has the better matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders (2% fewer than average to WRs); Javonte Williams faces the Houston Texans (19% fewer than average to RBs). Javonte Williams still wins more often despite that. Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, Rashee Rice is the pick at 56%; in Standard leagues, Javonte Williams wins 57%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 6.1
- Median
- 12.0
- Ceiling
- 21.7
- Big game (20+):
- 13%
- Dud (under 6):
- 9%
- Floor
- 5.5
- Median
- 12.0
- Ceiling
- 22.1
- Big game (20+):
- 15%
- Dud (under 6):
- 13%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Javonte WilliamsRB, DAL, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Rashee RiceWR, KC, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 12.9 | 13.1 |
| PPR projection | 14.0 | 15.9 |
| Standard projection | 11.7 | 10.3 |
| Rank this week | RB12 | WR10 |
| Matchup | at HOU | at LV |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 15.2 | 10.5 |
| Last season per game | 14.1 | 15.5 |
| Snap share, last game | 76% | 77% |
| Trade value | 35 | 30 |