Jaylin NoelorLuther Burden III?
Week 7 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Start Luther Burden III
Luther Burden III outscores Jaylin Noel in 56% of simulations.
Jaylin Noel still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so Luther Burden III is the better bet, not a sure thing. Luther Burden III projects 0.8 half-PPR points ahead in Week 7. Jaylin Noel has the better matchup against the New York Giants (5% more than average to WRs); Luther Burden III faces the New England Patriots (3% fewer than average to WRs). Luther Burden III still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 1.3
- Median
- 5.9
- Ceiling
- 16.2
- Big game (20+):
- 5%
- Dud (under 6):
- 50%
- Floor
- 2.2
- Median
- 7.2
- Ceiling
- 17.1
- Big game (20+):
- 6%
- Dud (under 6):
- 41%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Jaylin NoelWR, HOU, Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 p.m. ET | Luther Burden IIIWR, CHI, Thu, Oct 22, 8:15 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 7.8 | 8.6 |
| PPR projection | 9.1 | 10.7 |
| Standard projection | 6.6 | 6.4 |
| Rank this week | WR37 | WR34 |
| Matchup | vs NYG | vs NE |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 9.4 | 9.6 |
| Last season per game | 3.3 | 7.0 |
| Snap share, last game | 49% | 39% |
| Trade value | — | — |