Jaylin NoelorKeenan Allen?
Week 7 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Keenan Allen
Keenan Allen outscores Jaylin Noel in 52% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Jaylin Noel comes out ahead in the other 48%. Lean Keenan Allen, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Jaylin Noel projects 0.2 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Jaylin Noel has the better matchup against the New York Giants (5% more than average to WRs); Keenan Allen faces the Minnesota Vikings (21% fewer than average to WRs). Keenan Allen still wins more often despite that. Scoring matters here: in Standard leagues, Jaylin Noel is the pick at 54%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 1.3
- Median
- 5.9
- Ceiling
- 16.2
- Big game (20+):
- 5%
- Dud (under 6):
- 50%
- Floor
- 2.1
- Median
- 6.4
- Ceiling
- 14.0
- Big game (20+):
- 3%
- Dud (under 6):
- 46%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Jaylin NoelWR, HOU, Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 p.m. ET | Keenan AllenWR, IND, Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 7.8 | 7.6 |
| PPR projection | 9.1 | 9.8 |
| Standard projection | 6.6 | 5.3 |
| Rank this week | WR37 | WR38 |
| Matchup | vs NYG | at MIN |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 9.4 | 8.3 |
| Last season per game | 3.3 | 8.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 49% | 71% |
| Trade value | — | — |