Josh DownsorMalik Nabers?
Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Start Josh Downs
Josh Downs outscores Malik Nabers in 56% of simulations.
Malik Nabers still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so Josh Downs is the better bet, not a sure thing. Malik Nabers projects 0.3 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Josh Downs has the better matchup against the Washington Commanders (23% more than average to WRs); Malik Nabers faces the Arizona Cardinals (6% more than average to WRs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 3.3
- Median
- 8.0
- Ceiling
- 15.2
- Big game (20+):
- 3%
- Dud (under 6):
- 32%
- Floor
- 1.5
- Median
- 7.0
- Ceiling
- 19.5
- Big game (20+):
- 9%
- Dud (under 6):
- 45%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Josh DownsWR, IND, Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 a.m. ET | Malik NabersWR, NYG, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 8.8 | 9.1 |
| PPR projection | 11.2 | 11.3 |
| Standard projection | 6.5 | 6.9 |
| Rank this week | WR29 | WR27 |
| Matchup | at WAS | vs ARI |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 8.5 | 5.2 |
| Last season per game | 6.8 | 12.0 |
| Snap share, last game | 68% | 78% |
| Trade value | — | 1 |