Justin JeffersonorMichael Wilson?
Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Michael Wilson
Michael Wilson outscores Justin Jefferson in 52% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Justin Jefferson comes out ahead in the other 48%. Lean Michael Wilson, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Michael Wilson projects 1.0 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Michael Wilson has the better matchup against the New York Giants (11% more than average to WRs); Justin Jefferson faces the Miami Dolphins (9% fewer than average to WRs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 3.7
- Median
- 9.4
- Ceiling
- 18.5
- Big game (20+):
- 7%
- Dud (under 6):
- 25%
- Floor
- 2.7
- Median
- 9.8
- Ceiling
- 23.2
- Big game (20+):
- 15%
- Dud (under 6):
- 30%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Justin JeffersonWR, MIN, Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 p.m. ET | Michael WilsonWR, ARI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 10.6 | 11.6 |
| PPR projection | 13.0 | 14.4 |
| Standard projection | 8.2 | 8.8 |
| Rank this week | WR19 | WR16 |
| Matchup | vs MIA | at NYG |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 12.8 | 10.4 |
| Last season per game | 9.4 | 10.7 |
| Snap share, last game | 12% | 93% |
| Trade value | 16 | 13 |