Mike EvansorTrey McBride?
Week 6 start/sit decision, wide receiver or tight end.
Our call
Lean Trey McBride
Trey McBride outscores Mike Evans in 51% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Mike Evans comes out ahead in the other 49%. Lean Trey McBride, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Both project 12.4 half-PPR points in Week 6. Mike Evans has the better matchup against the Washington Commanders (17% more than average to WRs); Trey McBride faces the Los Angeles Rams (22% fewer than average to TEs). Trey McBride still wins more often despite that. Scoring matters here: in Standard leagues, Mike Evans is the pick at 55%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 4.6
- Median
- 11.1
- Ceiling
- 21.2
- Big game (20+):
- 13%
- Dud (under 6):
- 18%
- Floor
- 5.2
- Median
- 11.3
- Ceiling
- 20.9
- Big game (15+):
- 29%
- Dud (under 5):
- 9%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Mike EvansWR, SF, Mon, Oct 19, 8:15 p.m. ET | Trey McBrideTE, ARI, Sun, Oct 18, 4:05 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 12.4 | 12.4 |
| PPR projection | 14.8 | 15.8 |
| Standard projection | 10.0 | 8.9 |
| Rank this week | WR14 | TE4 |
| Matchup | vs WAS | at LAR |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 12.9 | 14.0 |
| Last season per game | 8.7 | 14.9 |
| Snap share, last game | 63% | 90% |
| Trade value | 19 | 38 |