Rico DowdleorWoody Marks?
Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Lean Rico Dowdle
Rico Dowdle outscores Woody Marks in 52% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Woody Marks comes out ahead in the other 48%. Lean Rico Dowdle, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Rico Dowdle projects 0.9 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Woody Marks has the better matchup against the Dallas Cowboys (16% more than average to RBs); Rico Dowdle faces the Cleveland Browns (5% fewer than average to RBs). Rico Dowdle still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.2
- Median
- 7.3
- Ceiling
- 18.2
- Big game (20+):
- 7%
- Dud (under 6):
- 40%
- Floor
- 2.3
- Median
- 7.1
- Ceiling
- 16.3
- Big game (20+):
- 5%
- Dud (under 6):
- 42%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Rico DowdleRB, PIT, Thu, Oct 1, 8:15 p.m. ET | Woody MarksRB, HOU, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 9.3 | 8.4 |
| PPR projection | 10.4 | 9.4 |
| Standard projection | 8.3 | 7.4 |
| Rank this week | RB29 | RB33 |
| Matchup | at CLE | vs DAL |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 4.3 | 6.4 |
| Last season per game | 11.6 | 8.3 |
| Snap share, last game | 26% | 37% |
| Trade value | 1 | — |