CeeDee LamborChristian McCaffrey?
Week 5 start/sit decision, wide receiver or running back.
Our call
Lean Christian McCaffrey
Christian McCaffrey outscores CeeDee Lamb in 53% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: CeeDee Lamb comes out ahead in the other 47%. Lean Christian McCaffrey, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Christian McCaffrey projects 0.5 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. CeeDee Lamb has the better matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6% fewer than average to WRs); Christian McCaffrey faces the Seattle Seahawks (15% fewer than average to RBs). Christian McCaffrey still wins more often despite that. Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, CeeDee Lamb is the pick at 52%; in Standard leagues, Christian McCaffrey wins 58%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 7.8
- Median
- 15.8
- Ceiling
- 28.4
- Big game (20+):
- 32%
- Dud (under 6):
- 5%
- Floor
- 9.2
- Median
- 16.8
- Ceiling
- 27.5
- Big game (20+):
- 34%
- Dud (under 6):
- 2%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | CeeDee LambWR, DAL, Thu, Oct 8, 8:15 p.m. ET | Christian McCaffreyRB, SF, Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 17.1 | 17.6 |
| PPR projection | 20.8 | 19.8 |
| Standard projection | 13.5 | 15.3 |
| Rank this week | WR4 | RB4 |
| Matchup | vs TB | at SEA |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 23.4 | 16.5 |
| Last season per game | 12.6 | 21.5 |
| Snap share, last game | 86% | 74% |
| Trade value | 72 | 78 |