CeeDee LamborTrey McBride?
Week 5 start/sit decision, wide receiver or tight end.
Our call
Start CeeDee Lamb
CeeDee Lamb outscores Trey McBride in 56% of simulations.
Trey McBride still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so CeeDee Lamb is the better bet, not a sure thing. CeeDee Lamb projects 1.3 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. Trey McBride has the better matchup against the Detroit Lions (41% more than average to TEs); CeeDee Lamb faces the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6% fewer than average to WRs). CeeDee Lamb still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 7.6
- Median
- 15.7
- Ceiling
- 28.5
- Big game (20+):
- 32%
- Dud (under 6):
- 5%
- Floor
- 6.5
- Median
- 14.4
- Ceiling
- 26.8
- Big game (15+):
- 47%
- Dud (under 5):
- 5%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | CeeDee LambWR, DAL, Thu, Oct 8, 8:15 p.m. ET | Trey McBrideTE, ARI, Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 17.1 | 15.8 |
| PPR projection | 20.8 | 20.3 |
| Standard projection | 13.5 | 11.4 |
| Rank this week | WR4 | TE1 |
| Matchup | vs TB | vs DET |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 23.4 | 13.2 |
| Last season per game | 12.6 | 14.9 |
| Snap share, last game | 86% | 97% |
| Trade value | 74 | 45 |