Derrick HenryorZay Flowers?
Week 9 start/sit decision, running back or wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Zay Flowers
Zay Flowers outscores Derrick Henry in 52% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Derrick Henry comes out ahead in the other 48%. Lean Zay Flowers, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Zay Flowers projects 0.5 half-PPR points ahead in Week 9. Zay Flowers has the better matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars (7% more than average to WRs); Derrick Henry faces the Jacksonville Jaguars (23% fewer than average to RBs). Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, Zay Flowers wins 59%; in Standard leagues, Derrick Henry is the pick at 57%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 4.5
- Median
- 11.2
- Ceiling
- 23.0
- Big game (20+):
- 16%
- Dud (under 6):
- 19%
- Floor
- 4.5
- Median
- 11.7
- Ceiling
- 24.2
- Big game (20+):
- 19%
- Dud (under 6):
- 17%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Derrick HenryRB, BAL, Thu, Nov 5, 8:15 p.m. ET | Zay FlowersWR, BAL, Thu, Nov 5, 8:15 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 12.7 | 13.2 |
| PPR projection | 13.2 | 15.9 |
| Standard projection | 12.2 | 10.4 |
| Rank this week | RB13 | WR10 |
| Matchup | vs JAX | vs JAX |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 16.3 | 14.6 |
| Last season per game | 16.0 | 11.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 45% | 82% |
| Trade value | 36 | 29 |