Javonte WilliamsorNico Collins?
Week 5 start/sit decision, running back or wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Nico Collins
Nico Collins outscores Javonte Williams in 54% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Javonte Williams comes out ahead in the other 46%. Lean Nico Collins, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Nico Collins projects 1.0 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. Nico Collins has the better matchup against the Tennessee Titans (13% more than average to WRs); Javonte Williams faces the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8% fewer than average to RBs). Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, Nico Collins wins 59%; in Standard leagues, Javonte Williams is the pick at 51%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 7.3
- Median
- 14.5
- Ceiling
- 26.4
- Big game (20+):
- 26%
- Dud (under 6):
- 6%
- Floor
- 7.5
- Median
- 15.2
- Ceiling
- 27.6
- Big game (20+):
- 29%
- Dud (under 6):
- 5%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Javonte WilliamsRB, DAL, Thu, Oct 8, 8:15 p.m. ET | Nico CollinsWR, HOU, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 15.6 | 16.6 |
| PPR projection | 17.0 | 19.5 |
| Standard projection | 14.3 | 13.8 |
| Rank this week | RB6 | WR5 |
| Matchup | vs TB | at TEN |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 18.6 | 22.5 |
| Last season per game | 14.1 | 12.7 |
| Snap share, last game | 74% | 69% |
| Trade value | 56 | 55 |