Jake FergusonorKyle Pitts?
Week 4 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Start Jake Ferguson
Jake Ferguson outscores Kyle Pitts in 60% of simulations.
Kyle Pitts still comes out ahead in the other 40%, so Jake Ferguson is the better bet, not a sure thing. Jake Ferguson projects 1.6 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Kyle Pitts has the better matchup against the New Orleans Saints (8% more than average to TEs); Jake Ferguson faces the Houston Texans (9% fewer than average to TEs). Jake Ferguson still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.3
- Median
- 7.1
- Ceiling
- 16.1
- Big game (15+):
- 12%
- Dud (under 5):
- 33%
- Floor
- 1.1
- Median
- 5.1
- Ceiling
- 14.9
- Big game (15+):
- 10%
- Dud (under 5):
- 49%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Jake FergusonTE, DAL, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Kyle PittsTE, ATL, Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 8.5 | 6.9 |
| PPR projection | 10.5 | 8.8 |
| Standard projection | 6.5 | 5.1 |
| Rank this week | TE14 | TE17 |
| Matchup | at HOU | at NO |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 9.2 | 1.0 |
| Last season per game | 8.7 | 9.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 69% | 59% |
| Trade value | — | — |