Jayden DanielsorSam Darnold?
Week 5 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Jayden Daniels
Jayden Daniels outscores Sam Darnold in 58% of simulations.
Sam Darnold still comes out ahead in the other 42%, so Jayden Daniels is the better bet, not a sure thing. Jayden Daniels projects 1.5 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. The matchups don't separate them: Jayden Daniels faces the New York Giants (5% more than average to QBs), Sam Darnold faces the San Francisco 49ers (2% fewer than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 9.3
- Median
- 15.9
- Ceiling
- 25.2
- Big game (25+):
- 10%
- Dud (under 12):
- 24%
- Floor
- 6.6
- Median
- 13.9
- Ceiling
- 25.7
- Big game (25+):
- 11%
- Dud (under 12):
- 39%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Jayden DanielsQB, WAS, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | Sam DarnoldQB, SEA, Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 16.8 | 15.3 |
| PPR projection | 16.8 | 15.3 |
| Standard projection | 16.8 | 15.3 |
| Rank this week | QB14 | QB18 |
| Matchup | vs NYG | vs SF |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 16.2 | 13.8 |
| Last season per game | 16.3 | 13.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 55% | 100% |
| Trade value | — | — |