Justice HillorRico Dowdle?
Week 10 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Rico Dowdle
Rico Dowdle outscores Justice Hill in 70% of simulations.
Justice Hill still comes out ahead in the other 30%, so Rico Dowdle is the better bet, not a sure thing. Rico Dowdle projects 4.5 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. Rico Dowdle has the better matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals (13% more than average to RBs); Justice Hill faces the Los Angeles Chargers (5% fewer than average to RBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 0.7
- Median
- 4.4
- Ceiling
- 14.3
- Big game (20+):
- 4%
- Dud (under 6):
- 62%
- Floor
- 2.6
- Median
- 8.5
- Ceiling
- 21.0
- Big game (20+):
- 11%
- Dud (under 6):
- 34%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Justice HillRB, BAL, Mon, Nov 16, 8:15 p.m. ET | Rico DowdleRB, PIT, Sun, Nov 15, 8:20 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 6.2 | 10.7 |
| PPR projection | 7.4 | 12.0 |
| Standard projection | 5.0 | 9.4 |
| Rank this week | RB37 | RB18 |
| Matchup | vs LAC | at CIN |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 5.7 | 7.6 |
| Last season per game | 5.5 | 11.6 |
| Snap share, last game | 52% | 47% |
| Trade value | — | 3 |