Ja'Marr ChaseorKyren Williams?
Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver or running back.
Our call
Lean Kyren Williams
Kyren Williams outscores Ja'Marr Chase in 52% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Ja'Marr Chase comes out ahead in the other 48%. Lean Kyren Williams, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Ja'Marr Chase projects 0.2 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. The matchups don't separate them: Kyren Williams faces the Philadelphia Eagles (3% more than average to RBs), Ja'Marr Chase faces the Jacksonville Jaguars (2% fewer than average to WRs). Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, Ja'Marr Chase is the pick at 53%; in Standard leagues, Kyren Williams wins 62%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 5.7
- Median
- 14.1
- Ceiling
- 28.0
- Big game (20+):
- 27%
- Dud (under 6):
- 11%
- Floor
- 7.9
- Median
- 14.3
- Ceiling
- 23.7
- Big game (20+):
- 21%
- Dud (under 6):
- 4%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Ja'Marr ChaseWR, CIN, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Kyren WilliamsRB, LAR, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 15.7 | 15.5 |
| PPR projection | 19.3 | 16.9 |
| Standard projection | 12.2 | 14.0 |
| Rank this week | WR5 | RB7 |
| Matchup | vs JAX | at PHI |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 15.2 | 15.8 |
| Last season per game | 15.7 | 14.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 71% |
| Trade value | 48 | 40 |