Jaxon Smith-NjigbaorKyren Williams?
Week 5 start/sit decision, wide receiver or running back.
Our call
Lean Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Jaxon Smith-Njigba outscores Kyren Williams in 53% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Kyren Williams comes out ahead in the other 47%. Lean Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Jaxon Smith-Njigba projects 1.2 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. Kyren Williams has the better matchup against the Buffalo Bills (16% more than average to RBs); Jaxon Smith-Njigba faces the San Francisco 49ers (3% fewer than average to WRs). Jaxon Smith-Njigba still wins more often despite that. Scoring matters here: in Standard leagues, Kyren Williams is the pick at 53%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 9.4
- Median
- 18.9
- Ceiling
- 32.1
- Big game (20+):
- 45%
- Dud (under 6):
- 2%
- Floor
- 9.2
- Median
- 17.5
- Ceiling
- 29.6
- Big game (20+):
- 39%
- Dud (under 6):
- 2%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR, SEA, Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 p.m. ET | Kyren WilliamsRB, LAR, Mon, Oct 12, 8:15 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 20.2 | 19.0 |
| PPR projection | 23.8 | 21.0 |
| Standard projection | 16.6 | 16.9 |
| Rank this week | WR1 | RB3 |
| Matchup | vs SF | vs BUF |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 25.2 | 19.8 |
| Last season per game | 17.7 | 14.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 88% | 83% |
| Trade value | 94 | 63 |